Harold Ancell wrote:
You too, Harold? :) I haven't had this violent reaction to a 'fic
since I had Kasumi call Nabiki "Oneechan".
Date: Wed, 28 Aug 1996 20:36:02 -0500
From: Richard Lawson <sterman@sprynet.com>
Harold Ancell wrote:
> A nice story---just one tiny problem that you might want to ignore: If
> the world is facing famine, one of the first things we'd do is cull
> our livestock herds, since animals are a rather inefficient way of
> producing food. Kill off all the domesticated animals in the US, and
> we'd be swimming in grain. Our food would be relatively boring, but
> plentiful.
>
> There a few details with regards to "essential" amino acids (a
> handful are rare in plants), but fermentation technology could take
> care of that handily.
Well, you know, I did a little web surfing on this subject. Opinions
were as varied on this point as they are on "When does life begin?".
People pointing out that one pound of meat does not equal one pound of
grain, and that cattle is more than just meat, we use lots of other
parts of it, yadda, yadda yadda.
Many pounds of grain == one pound net of cow; this isn't rocket
science, it's very well understood, 4-H level stuff. Just look at the
culling of the American beef herds recently due to the rise in grain
prices. And one of the reasons grain prices are rising is the rise in
wealth in China; more grain is going to feed animals there since more
people can afford meat.
Just talk to a vegetarian; they live *much* cheaper lives, food wise.
Prices tell you something....
I guess I miss the point you're trying to make here. Fruits and
vegetables are cheap, yes, but if you had all the people who eat meat
suddenly demand the same fruits and vegetable, wouldn't that drastically
affect supply as well as cost?
I rationalized it thus: even if he had tons o' grain, we wouldn't have
the facilities to turn it into something useful to consume - the same
argument I used with the fish thing. And we couldn't exactly strap the
ol' feedbag on the US population and expect them to chow down.
All you need to do is to grind it, and in the case of corn, treat it
with lye to release the niacin, and cook it with water, salt, and a
little oil. Most of the world's population is grateful to eat this
well.... (Rice is even simpler, but it's not an issue for the US.)
Actually, I think you missed the point. Yes, it can be done - but do we
have the facilities to do it fast enough? The vast majority of the
population eats meat - and now they suddenly want the grain that was
being used to feed the animals. It's like trying to pump more water
through a hose - you can increase the pressure, but eventually the hose
will burst. You need a bigger hose. The extra facilities needed to
process the grain couldn't be built overnight.
Also, killin' off the ol' animal herd wastes the millions of tons of
grain already used to bring them to the state they are; that's gotta
hurt.
That's the fallacy of sunk costs; sure, it hurts the ranchers and feed
lot operators who watch their investments go poof, and the price of
grain will go way down due to the sudden oversupply, but it's not even
close to Armageddon.
I don't understand this as well; are you saying that the lost cattle
would have no impact on the food supply? I truly find this hard to
believe, even though I may be betraying my own ignorance.
So, if you're willing to suspend you disbelief enough on this one point,
does it work for you?
Sorry, I grew up in the Midwest, studied expedient nucler war survival
back when the Cold War was rather hot---this is so far removed from
reality that I can't.
Well, I could understand how studying nuclear war can prepare you for
the loss of your cattle. :) And I'm sorry you couldn't enjoy the story
- maybe I won't post in on r.a.a.c if this is the reaction it will get -
focussing so much on arguing the plot that the story gets lost. That's
not the effect I was hoping for. :)
I must with regret, launch a barrage of criticism at this story, with the
understanding that I am not a specialist in any of the things I'm talking
about, so I could be wrong...
I find it implausible that a virus could be created that would only slay
livestock. Most viruses are confined to single species. Of course, they
could also create multiple viruses for different species, which would be
more plausible.
It would be *real* hard to create just one that's this specific.
Also, create that much viri, and the possibility of a mutation that
includes humans as a host is---frightening.
I'll throw the same argument at you that I did at John - in the future,
anything is possible (I mean really, how can we possibly exceed the
speed of light?). I admit to having thoughts about mutation myself but
decided not pursue them - again, if I had to examine every ramification
of the disease, I'd lose the story very quickly.
Also, AIDS isn't a very good analogy. This virus kills very quickly,
spreads at a rather humongously rapid rate, and is remarkably fatal as
viruses go...Although a few weeks is too short a time to easily find a
cure to a virus anyway...Also, if it spreads so quickly and is so
unstoppable, I'm rather surprised it didn't escape their labs while they
were still trying to develop it. (A la the Stand...) (I'd recommend
reading Plagues and Peoples by William McNeill for a historical
perspective on this :))
In fact, it kills too quickly to spread seriously; without a plausable
vector or other transmission system, it's simply not going to get very
far. Notice how self-limiting Lassa and Ebola turn out to be if you
ignore the hype and look at what actually happens in an outbreak.
Well, it was my (unwritten) assumption that the virus 'hides' itself in
the atmoshphere, becoming dormant and benign, until it comes into
contact with certain kinds of DNA. This would only be possible in an
engineered virus (and no, I have no idea how; then again, I have no idea
what exactly anti-matter is).
[ Importance of meat. ]
Also, if scientists could clone pigs in vast enough quantities to save
the world from starvation, why couldn't they do the same with fish?
Either they shouldn't be able to supply the pigs fast enough to make a
difference (What about transportation for all these pigs, etc...), or
there seems to be no reason they couldn't have just started bulk cloning
fish.
Yep, the distribution problem is a killer; that's another reason grain
is so popular when things get tough.
Also, raising zillions of catfish would be quite easy. Each of us
could raise a bunch in an extra bathtub or whatnot.
Hmm, maybe. I didn't think about that. Then again, we have the same
problem of how to process all that extra fish. Then yet again, all you
need to do is gut it, chop its head off, and stick it on a frying pan.
That's the problem with trying to create a world-wide disaster; the
world tends to come up with different ways of countering it. :)
(As a piece of writing, this is good as always, but as an academic, it's
my job to complain about these sorts of things :))
Ditto; sorry to be pedantic, but the story falls down this way.
You could adjust it thus:
Moderate the speed of the plague, but keep it's eventual affect
(basicly wave your hands here).
Turn our favorite couple into the heroes who kept variety in our diets;
meat and leather *are* important.
That's possible. It would also lessen the impact of the virus, and the
necessity of Akari's contributions; she would no longer be the "Savior
of the World", just "The Kawaii Woman Who Gave Us Back Our Bacon".
Still, if this is the trade off I need to make to the story believable,
it may be worth it. I'll wait to see other people's reactions before
making a judgement; so far I've heard two "It's great!" and two long
essays from pedants. :)
I'd also shorten the manifesto; you aren't the Washington Post or NYT
publishing the Unibomber's ravings (at the FBI's request---and the
ploy did work).
You won't belive how much I did shorten it; I basically cut and pasted
from a couple of web pages and tried to cut down on a lot of the
ranting. I'll look on tightening it up; maybe I should just rewrite it
from scratch. I'll get better prose that way.
- Harold
Thanks for your comments, Harold. :)
-Richard
sterman@sprynet.com
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/sterman